As an integration of temperature and precipitation, moisture index has long been used to describe vegetation distribution (Mather 1978) and has been proved to be aided in the interpretation of possible mechanisms controlling the distribution of vegetations (Stephenson 1990), while changes in temperature alone may be inadequate for understanding distributional shifts of plant species (Crimmins et al. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Index name: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems in the context of global climate change is one of the major components of current global change study. Future climate will drive significant latitudinal shift in vegetation distribution, but the directions of movements can be different under different climate change scenarios (Fig. In our calculation, the value of CMI was directly used without taking the absolute value, and thus the value of PMI ranged from − 1 to 1, with the sign (positive or negative) indicating the direction of MI change. Evidences being seen support the fact that the change cannot simply be explained by natural variation. The largest driver of warming … Climate Change 2001 Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Contribution Work Group Third Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 843. ↩. The Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) is a measurement devised by the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC), the United Nations Environment Program and others to characterize the relative severity of various types of environmental issues suffered by 243 enumerated individual nations and other geographies (such as Antarctica). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95(7):1011–1019. Found inside – Page 42Normalized scores with vulnerability indices for each zone and overall vulnerability index. ... The normalization of down FR can be calculated by referring to the formula in Eqn 4.2. In this case normalization will be calculated as ... https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-0329-3, Gonzalez P, Neilson RP, Lenihan JM, Drapek RJ (2010) Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change: global vulnerability to climate change. Thus it can be predicted that the magnitude of biome shift at higher latitudes should be larger than that at lower latitudes. Google Scholar, Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N, Vennetier M, Kitzberger T, Rigling A, Breshears DD, Hogg EH, Gonzalez P, Fensham R, Zhang Z, Castro J, Demidova N, Lim J, Allard G, Running SW, Akkin S, Cobb N (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Under RCP 4.5, each major vegetation types showed a significant northward shift in the future (Figs. Introduction 31 Many studies have been conducted on vulnerability to climate change and its extremes and 32 different researchers have defined vulnerability according to their own perception. Clim Chang 93(1–2):103–115. The study of Peterman et al. Found inside – Page 73Following the calculation of the profile values of the indicators, they are further combined according to the ... The vulnerability spider diagram shows that all the sub-watersheds are more vulnerable due to climate change and natural ... The index examines most areas of the world in 25 square kilometre segments, and then calculates a risk score using a scale of 0 to 10. Terms and Conditions, Our study region was located in the Southwestern part of China, including four provinces (Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Guangxi), Chongqing municipality and the southeastern part of the Tibetan plateau, with a total area of 2.33 million square kilometers (Fig. 2008). Calculate a social vulnerability index - compile svi data, normalize and standardize that data, weigh where necessary, and calculate an index. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1163428, Mountain Research Initiative EDW Working Group (2015) Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Found insideThrough exploration of these pathways of double exposure, the book also shows how broader human security concerns including growing inequalities, growing vulnerabilities, and unsustainable rates of development are integrally connected to ... https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2007, Wu S, Dai E, Huang M, Shao X, Li S, Tao B (2007) Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century. 2007), while less attention has been paid on a method that can provide comprehensive assessment for these critical aspects of ecosystem. The CCVI characterizes areas based on an equation … The highest vulnerability of 0.45 (moderate vulnerability) was indicated by Colombo Municipal Council MOH area, while the lowest (0.15; very low vulnerability) was shown by Galaha MOH area in Kandy (Fig. We utilized the model to predict the spatial and temporal variation of vegetation productivity and potential vegetation distribution in Southwestern China, a region with the most complex topography and the most diverse ecosystem but also suffered from severe human disturbance in China. Climate change vulnerability research methods are often divergent, drawing from siloed biophysical risk approaches or social-contextual frameworks, lacking methods for integrative approaches. Found inside – Page 87The index used information generated from 19 indicators to calculate an overall climate vulnerability score that included factors specifically related to climate change (Cooley et al., 2012). Another example is Climate Just, ... (2007) and Zhao & Wu et al. While in the meantime, the productivity of future vegetation will generally show an increasing trend in most areas under both RCPs. Demo the latest climate vulnerability mapping tool for flood, heat and wind stressors. 2000; Kim et al. This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report (IPCC-SREX) explores the challenge of understanding and managing the risks of climate extremes to advance climate change adaptation. By overlapping the vulnerability layers of future climate exposure, vegetation stability and productivity vulnerability, we obtained a comprehensive assessment of ecosystem vulnerability for the study area (Fig. Article  California: California Department of Public Health and the Public Health Initiative. By comparing with similar studies assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change, our analysis builds on existing efforts in three important aspects. Therefore, future (2017–2100) potential vegetation map was simulated by MC2 model at a resolution of 0.05° (thus there were a hundred 0.05° sub-grids in each 0.5° grid). When calculating the vegetation stability, we use vegetation intactness to reflect the impact of human activities on ecosystems. 2003; Mills et al. In developing water management plans, predicted changes to climate variables should be considered to evaluate the degree of non-stationarity that may exist in the future. 2005; Buddenbaum et al. They then calculate past rates of change of methane in the atmosphere and reflect on future climate. where P = precipitation. However, a drastic and continuous warming (RCP 8.5) will lead more than half of the study area under serious water deficit (Fig. The complexity of ecosystems makes the relevant vulnerability assessment studies have no uniform method (Turner et al. 2014; Pacifici et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-3041-7, Xie X, He B, Guo L, Miao C, Zhang Y (2019) Detecting hotspots of interactions between vegetation greenness and terrestrial water storage using satellite observations. https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00203.1, Article  %PDF-1.4 %���� Unfortunately, the poorer regions will be worst affected by climate change, while the wealthiest regions are expected to face the least harmful effects. The soil data we used indeed had a small number of grids on the Tibetan Plateau where the soil depth was very shallow or even zero (for example, bare land), which may cause the model to produce unpredictable results in simulating the productivity of these grids. The exposure to future climate was characterized using a moisture index (MI) that integrates the effects of temperature and precipitation. MC2 can simulate potential vegetation distributions, and the movement of carbon, nitrogen, and water through ecosystems (Lenihan et al. 2005; Grundstein 2009; Fensham et al. Version 1.0. Global warming has brought many negative impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, which makes the vulnerability of ecosystems one of the hot issues in current ecological research. The reason is that the calculation of vegetation stability requires a finer scale vegetation map to calculate the proportion of changes in vegetation types within each 0.5° grid (see details below). Privacy We think this is likely to be related to the soil inputs of the MC2 model. Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts on various human and natural systems (IPCC 2014). Springer Nature. Environ Res Lett 12(4):045001 doi:10/gdm3f3, Lenihan JM, Bachelet D, Neilson RP, Drapek R (2008) Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California. 4c). Vulnerability to climate change can vary significantly across short distances and visualizing these changes allow governments to better prepare adaptation techniques. 1996), SEIB (Sato et al. Vulnerability Assessment; Resilience Measures; Adaptive Capacity; Vulnerability Assessment. tem for assessing vulnerability of species to climate change. Remote Sens Environ 95(2):164–176. Found inside – Page iiiIn many regions of the tropics, climate planning is growing but has still very low quality. This book identifies the weaknesses and proposes effective solutions. This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. J Forest Plan 16:149–161. As shown in Appendix S1, the calculation of vegetation stability had two steps. Here the large square represents a 0.5° grid and is divided into four sub-grids for example. Nature 451(7176):289–292. As shown in Fig. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. Found inside – Page 29... and to measurements in finance and economics, climate change is another important field for understanding the workings of increasingly sophisticated quantification and calculation. Climate change vulnerability indicators are used, ... Vulnerability assessments are a key tool to begin to prepare and plan for resilience to climate change and health impacts. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the majority of our study region showed varying degrees of vulnerability, with 39.5% of areas classified as low vulnerability and 57% as medium vulnerability. Found inside – Page 106Health vulnerability assessment of heatwave and projections of future impacts under climate change in South Korea Satbyul Kim ... Vulnerability index (VRI) for each region was calculated based on values of variables identified for three ... In our results, a small number of grids were classified with high (0.91%) or very high (0.23%) productivity vulnerability under RCP 8.5, and these grids was irregularly distributed on the Tibetan Plateau (Fig. 6a and b). 8). The outcome of their work was first presented at the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, held in January 1993. As the results showed, for most of the study area, a relatively moderate warming (RCP 4.5) will not laid severe impact on water availability (Fig. 2017). The data is collected from sources such as the United Nations (UN), World Bank, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), etc. Schematic of the calculation of vegetation stability. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprsarchives-XL-7-W3-345-2015, Choi S, Lee W-K, Kwak H, Kim S-R, Yoo S, Choi H-A, Park S, Lim J-H (2011) Vulnerability assessment of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using MC1 model (Special Issue: Multipurpose Forest management). climate variability. Ecology 90(10):2657–2663. 6c and d) is actually determined by the changes of potential vegetation distribution. The Food Insecurity and Climate Change Vulnerability Index offers a window on our global future up to the 2080s, looking at how climate change may affect future vulnerability to food insecurity. Sites are then classified as low, medium-low, medium-high, and 6 Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile Philippines experiences and its high vulnerability, linked to poverty and environmental degradation.18 At least 60%of the country’s total land area and 74%of the population are exposed to multiple hazards, including typhoons, floods, Google Scholar, Bachelet D, Lenihan JM, Daly C, Neilson RP, Ojima DS, Parton WJ (2001a) MC1: a dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution of vegetation and associated carbon, nutrients, and water—technical documentation. p* = mean precipitation. 2011; Zhao and Wu 2014; Eigenbrod et al. Here, we proposed an assessment method based on the IPCC definition of vulnerability. Found inside – Page 142The empirical validity of using the first principal components as weights for indicators is demonstrated by ... Finally, a vulnerability index (V) for each household was calculated as: V = Exposure + Sensitivity − Adaptivecapacity . https://doi.org/10.1038/35002501, Pacifici M, Foden WB, Visconti P, Watson JEM, Butchart SHM, Kovacs KM, Scheffers BR, Hole DG, Martin TG, Akçakaya HR, Corlett RT, Huntley B, Bickford D, Carr JA, Hoffmann AA, Midgley GF, Pearce-Kelly P, Pearson RG, Williams SE, Willis SG, Young B, Rondinini C (2015) Assessing species vulnerability to climate change. The 6 GIFs, shown above, are each computed as a composite index itself, depending on the data selected for the location in question. Autazes is bounded to the north by the Amazon River and to the east by the Madeira River ().AM-254 is the main highway in the municipality, connecting the city of Autazes to Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho) at km 18, thus providing a connection to Manaus, the … The Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) is a regional tool developed for New Haven and Fairfield Counties that can be used, in conjunction with other resources, for planning and developing purposes. (2010), ecosystem exposure was quantified as the probabilities of climate change (temperature and precipitation), and its value was actually determined by the one that has larger magnitude of change. However, so far there still lacks a reliable method to predict land use and cover change (LUCC) under future climate change. In this study, we built on recent works and carried out an ecosystem vulnerability assessment method based on climate exposure, vegetation stability and vegetation productivity. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2651-2017, Stephenson NL (1990) Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111(26):9527–9532. For each of the two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), we determined the overlap of the vulnerability classes that derived separately from future climate (PMI), vegetation dynamics (Sv) and productivity (PNPP). Using this method, we evaluated the vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China under two future representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model. 2015; Slevin et al. This dataset provided downscaled 0.5° global “Bias-Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)” climate projections for 37 major global circulation models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, from which we selected the outputs of BCC_CSM 1.1(m). Coral reef vulnerability to climate change in West Hawai‘i. Introduction . By comparing the vegetation types of the two states, all sub-grids changed in vegetation type in each 0.5° grid were then excluded. Although the future vegetation distribution can differ significantly from current distribution, the productivity of future vegetation in most areas is not very vulnerable under both RCPs (Fig. In the study of Watson et al. MC2 also well simulated the spatial pattern of ecosystem productivity for the study area, Fig. J Earth Environm 9(5):444–454, Beck PSA, Juday GP, Alix C, Barber VA, Winslow SE, Sousa EE, Heiser P, Herriges JD, Goetz SJ (2011) Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift: changes in forest productivity across Alaska. for Ursus arctos in Middle Rockies Ecoregion (2006) investigated the impact of physical vulnerability (exposure) to climate change impacts and willingness to assume costlier mitigation policies. Chin Sci Bull 52(10):1379–1386. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12319, Fensham RJ, Fraser J, MacDermott HJ, Firn J (2015b) Dominant tree species are at risk from exaggerated drought under climate change. It combines exposure to climate extremes and change with the current human sensitivity to those climate stressors and the capacity of the country to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Abbreviation: VL, very low; L, low; M, medium; H, high; VH, very high. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. 6e). Xu, K., Wang, X., Jiang, C. et al. 6e and f), with nearly half of the area classified into high or very high vulnerability under both pathways (45.61% and 42.76%, respectively), especially in low altitude areas. Vulnerability classes use IPCC confidence class names and levels. Traditionally, vulnerability research might employ the risk-hazards approach or a pressure-and-release model in studying sustainable livelihoods, vulnerability to climate change or to famines and food insecurity, human ecology, or the integrated vulnerability of socio- ecological systems. The vulnerability index presented in this paper identified a number of vulnerable districts in India, which currently do not have large numbers of COVID-19 cases but could be strongly impacted by the epidemic. Ecosystems 4(3):164–185, Bao L, Wang N, Ni Z, Lu T (2018) Influence of the Tibetan plateau uplift on climate evolution in southwestern China: from the monsoon perspective. By adding up monthly precipitation of each year (using the same data for MC2 inputs), we calculated 2017–2100 annual precipitation for the study area under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Our method is in part an inheritance and integration of existing methods, and improvements have also been made in order to make a better assessment of ecosystem vulnerability. We calculate a vulnerability index of 147 countries by drawing on the most recent data related to the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries. effects. In the study of Gonzalez et al. Many climate change adaptation efforts aim to address the implications of potential changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of weather and climate events that affect the risk of extreme impacts on human society. The highest vulnerability of 0.45 (moderate vulnerability) was indicated by Colombo Municipal Council MOH area, while the lowest (0.15; very low vulnerability) was shown by Galaha MOH area in Kandy (Fig. At present, it is still very difficult to make a reasonable prediction of land use change on dozens or even hundreds of years, further studies are still required (Verburg et al. Glob Planet Chang 76(3–4):186–195. Climate change exposure hotspots There is a subset of hotspots mapping efforts that focus only on projected changes in temperature and selected precipitation parameters, that is, the “exposure” part of the IPCC formulation. We found that all vegetation types will significantly move northward under RCP 4.5, which was consistent with many studies that global warming will lead species and biomes to expand their ranges towards high latitudes (Bachelet et al. The value of vegetation stability (Sv) ranged from 0 to 100% and was negatively related with the vulnerability of ecosystems. Our simulation included two phases. GIS tools can be used to Giorgi’s (2006) Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) was the first to depict climate hotspots based solely on Found inside – Page 5Chapter 3, Assessing and Calculating a Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Agriculture Production in the Red River Delta, Vietnam, initiates a discussion on one strategy for integrating local people into the workings of the national ... The index examines most areas of the world in 25 square kilometre segments, and then calculates a risk score using a scale of 0 to 10. 2017). For example, structures cannot inherently adapt to climate change or other hazards, while natural resources often can. 2014; University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU) et al. Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI), developed by NatureServe, is a Microsoft Excel -based tool that facilitates rapid assessment of the vulnerability of plant and animal species to climate change within a defined geographic area. 4c), when compared with current vegetation distribution (Fig. Consequently, it is natural that the biomes shift northward as a result of climate warming, as commonly reported. Principal component statistical analysis was used to calculate an index for adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure to climate impact for each of the five districts. The six variables used to calculate the VRI index are: exposure to climate change, governance, total fertility rate, gross national income, food security and existing vulnerability to armed conflict. Xiangping Wang. Part of The author(s) read and approved the final manuscript. 2018). Remote Sens Spat Inform Sci XL-7(W3):345–351. Here, we proposed an assessment method based on the IPCC definition of vulnerability. In many cases vulnerability assessment In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of ecosystem vulnerability of Southwestern China based on future climate exposure, vegetation stability, and vegetation productivity under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). 4c and d). Introduction Climate change and related extreme events are negatively affecting ag- 8). In addition, due to the combined influence of the East Asian, the South Asian and the plateau monsoon (Bao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00348-3, Peterman W, Bachelet D, Ferschweiler K, Sheehan T (2014) Soil depth affects simulated carbon and water in the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model. Social vulnerability (pre-event conditions of the population that either exacerbate or attenuate impacts from hazards and disasters). https://doi.org/10.1086/285067, Tang G, Beckage B, Smith B, Miller PA (2010) Estimating potential forest NPP, biomass and their climatic sensitivity in New England using a dynamic ecosystem model. Watson et al. Although many studies have proposed LUCC prediction models, most of them focused on urbanization (Hepinstall et al. According to the Vegetation Regionalization Map of China, there were five major vegetation types in our study region (Fig. 2015). This running … Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(33):11823–11826. Xiangping Wang devised the main theoretical framework and proof outline. Clim Res 9:87–93. However, climate exposures calculated with moisture index showed different results (Fig. Global warming has brought many negative impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, which makes the vulnerability of ecosystems one of the hot issues in current ecological research. You can follow Craig Takeuchi on Twitter at @cinecraig or on Facebook . Considering the scenarios of climate change, the overall vulnerability was found to be higher under climate change scenario RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 in the North and Centre, while in the South overall vulnerability was slightly higher under climate change scenario RCP 4.5 (Fig. Analyses of future climate exposure and projected vegetation distribution indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China, while vegetation productivity in most areas will show an increasing trend to the end of twenty-first century. 2008; Qin et al. Clim Chang 131(1):163–178. Therefore, the simulated results of DGVMs must be verified using reliable data. To calculate the ONI, scientists from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calculate the average sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region for each month, and then they average it with values from the previous and following months. <> In the actual analysis, each 0.5° degree grid was divided into 100 sub-grids. In-session workshop on the development of early warning systems and contingency plans in relation to extreme weather events https://doi.org/10.1073/PNAS.1231335100, University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Harris IC, Jones PD (2017) CRU TS4.01: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) version 4.01 of high-resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan. 1901- Dec. 2016) [Data set].
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